Retirement Projection

Will the money last?

Retirement is one of the largest financial decisions most people will ever make — and most of it is decided years before by a tiny handful of inputs: how much you save, what it earns, and how long it has to grow. This tool projects those inputs forward to a target retirement age, then runs the math in reverse to show how long the resulting pot lasts at a chosen withdrawal level. Crucially it shows both the nominal balance (what your statement will show) and the real balance (what that money will actually buy in today's terms after inflation eats away).

The math

Accumulation phase, year by year: balance × (1 + return) + annual contribution. Inflation-adjusted value: nominal ÷ (1 + inflation)^years. Depletion phase: each retirement year, balance earns return, then a withdrawal that itself grows with inflation comes out. We walk this until the balance hits zero.

The single most important framing

Returns are not steady. The classic "4% safe withdrawal rule" (Trinity Study) survives most 30-year historical periods at 4% real withdrawal — but the worst historical period left someone broke at year 28. Real-world planners often use 3.5% to be safer, or build in a "guardrail" rule that flexes the withdrawal up or down as the portfolio swings. This tool's depletion number is a constant-return projection — treat it as a planning ballpark, not a prediction.

What the projection can't model

• Sequence-of-returns risk is real. Two retirees with the same average return can end up wildly different if one happens to retire just before a bad decade. This tool can't model that — it assumes returns are even.
• Inflation isn't 2.5%. It varies. 1970s ran high single digits, 2010s ran near zero, 2022 spiked above 8%. Run the tool at a few inflation values to see how sensitive your plan is.
• Don't confuse "annual return" assumptions. US stock market long-run nominal is around 9–10%; balanced 60/40 portfolio around 7%; cash near 0–2%. Inflation eats 2–3% off those. After fees, 4–5% real is a more honest expected number for a long-horizon investor.
• Employer match has a vesting schedule. If you leave your employer before fully vested, you forfeit some of the match. This tool credits it all immediately — a small but real correction in early years.
• Withdrawals are taxable. 401(k) and traditional IRA withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income; Roth withdrawals are tax-free. UK SIPP, Australian super, etc. all have local rules. Subtract tax to see what actually lands in your bank account.
• Healthcare in early retirement (US-specific). If you retire before Medicare (age 65) and don't have employer coverage, marketplace plans can easily cost $15,000+/year for a couple. Not modelled.
• The "lasts indefinitely" line is mathematical, not safe. If your projected withdrawal is below the return rate net of inflation, the balance grows forever in this constant-return model — but the same isn't true for real returns. Be conservative.

Levers that move the outcome most

• Match the wrapper to the time horizon, not the headline return. Roth IRA / ISA / PEA contributions made at age 30 compound for 35+ years tax-free. The same euro invested in a taxable brokerage gives up 15-25% of its terminal value to capital-gains tax. For long horizons, picking the right wrapper is worth more than chasing a 1-percentage-point higher return. See our article on compound interest myths for the wrapper-by-country breakdown.
• The "rate of return" assumption deserves stress-testing. Historical US equity real returns over rolling 30-year windows range from 3% to 12% depending on entry valuation. Plugging in "7% real" and treating it as a guarantee is the single most common projection error. Run the same plan at 4% and 9% and see what changes — if both produce acceptable outcomes, the plan is robust; if only the 7% world works, it's fragile.
• Inflation isn't one number. Personal inflation rate depends on what you spend money on: healthcare and housing run materially higher than the CPI headline for the over-60 demographic; electronics and apparel run negative. Retirees with high healthcare or housing exposure should model 1-1.5 percentage points above CPI; minimalist retirees can model below it. The default 2.5% is fine as a starting point.
• Sequence-of-returns risk is biggest in the first decade of retirement. If the market drops 30% in your first retirement year and you withdraw normally from a now-depressed balance, the math compounds against you for the rest of your life. The standard defence is a 2-5 year cash/bond buffer to draw from during the bad years, so equities have time to recover. Build that into your plan separately from the accumulator math this tool shows.
• State pensions / Social Security change the math more than people realise. A €20,000/year base income from a state pension is equivalent in retirement-funding terms to a €500K nest egg at the 4% rule. If you're entitled to one, model it as a separate income stream, and reduce the "nest egg target" accordingly. Many retirees with modest savings are richer than they realise once the state pension is properly factored in.

Pairs with

• compound-interest-calculator — without contributions, just to see pure compounding.
• mortgage-refi-comparison — compare investing vs. paying down a mortgage in retirement.
• currency-converter — for cross-border retirees with multiple currency pots.

Not investment advice. This tool runs arithmetic on your inputs and shows you the picture. It cannot account for sequence-of-returns risk, tax law changes, your specific income needs, longevity risk, or any other personal circumstance. Treat its numbers as a starting point for conversation with a qualified financial planner, not as a recommendation.

Age 35 to 65 on $50,000 and $12,000/year

Age 35, retiring at 65, with $50,000 saved and $12,000/year going in. A 50% employer match lifts the real contribution to $18,000/year. At 7% nominal, the pot grows to about $2.08 million by 65 — but at 2.5% inflation that's roughly $990,000 in today's money. A $40,000 annual withdrawal is about 4% of that real pot: right at the classic "safe" line, which is exactly why sequence-of-returns risk in the first retirement decade is the thing to plan around.

Quick answers

Why is the "today's money" figure so much lower? Inflation compounds too. Over 30 years at 2.5%, prices roughly double, so a $2M nominal pot commands about half that in current purchasing power. The real figure is the honest one to plan a retirement lifestyle against.

How much is the employer match actually worth? Here it adds $6,000/year of free contributions that then compound for decades — a large slice of the final pot. Capturing a full match is usually the highest-return move available in personal finance.

Is 4% a safe withdrawal rate? It survives most historical 30-year periods, but the worst left someone nearly broke by year 28. Many planners use 3.5%, or a "guardrail" that flexes spending with the portfolio. Treat 4% as a target-setting heuristic, not a withdrawal recipe.

What return should I enter? Use a nominal figure and keep inflation separate (the tool already does). A diversified long-term portfolio is often modelled at 6–7% nominal; lower it if you're bond-heavy or fee-heavy.

Savings vs drawdown

The projection compounds your starting balance plus annual contributions at your expected nominal return, then applies a second, separate discount for inflation to show the pot in today's purchasing power. That second step is the one most calculators skip: at 2.5% inflation over 30 years, prices roughly double, so a $2M nominal pot commands only about $1M in real spending power. The 4% rule then frames the drawdown — a $40,000 withdrawal against a $1M real pot — but the number that actually decides retirements is sequence-of-returns risk: a bad market in the first decade of withdrawals does far more damage than the same losses later, because you are selling assets while the balance is highest.

The nominal-dollar mirage

Planning in nominal dollars. The seven-figure future balance feels like enough precisely because inflation hasn't been taken out of it. Always plan a retirement lifestyle against the real (inflation-adjusted) figure, and stress-test with a low return as well as your central one — the pessimistic path is the one that tells you whether the plan survives.

Related

The compound interest calculator shows the accumulation math in isolation, the inflation calculator converts any future figure to today's money, and the ROI calculator checks the return assumption behind it all. For the intuition traps, read the compound-interest myths guide.

How big a pot? The 4% rule at a glance

Flip the projection around: instead of "what will my pot grow to?", ask "what pot funds the life I want?". A safe-withdrawal rate answers it in one division — pot needed = annual spending ÷ withdrawal rate. Lower the rate for a longer or more cautious retirement.